If we see significant increases in 2 to 4 weeks time then we can say yes its a failure, if there’s a small increase but not exponentially so, then this is the definition of “living with” the virus.
I’d be happier if everyone had to wear masks on the beach, but otherwise, what is the point in locking everyone up. Hospitals are nowhere near capacity, PPE shortages are likely to have been abated in some areas, transmission is clearly at its lowest so putting people outside where transmission risk is lowest doesn’t seem to be the worst thing. As long as they’re all distancing themselves.
Shops, restaurants etc. are still shut and if people were piling in with no masks/distancing then that’s what I’d be more upset about, if I’m honest.
Here’s the thing. We’ve got these new contact tracers recruited thus how else are we going to test the system without any transmission? I think we need to be thinking about the problem that could arise in November/December with the so called “second wave”. A few cases coming into the system actually gives us a chance to test this out and see if it works before the pressure really piles on.
That’s why I think Nightingales for now seem pointless but may actually be crucial. Running on the assumption there will be a second wave is strategically the right idea – the key is to put things in place that prevent a second lockdown. Tracing and specialised hospitals are what will prevent a full lockdown occurring.
What I’m interested in now is is the UK prepared for a second wave? Our failures the first time may prove to be the difference maker the second time around. In fact its what we’ve all been saying about South Korea and the like – they learnt from SARS, MERS etc. so let’s hope we’ve learnt from the first wave. Other nations may not have had the exposure, but they will at least be able to realise our botching is not the way to go. To summarise it appears we have:
– Reasonable Testing Capacity (bear in mind SK did 15,000 a day at its peak, so actually the law of diminishing returns is possibly applicable when getting about 100,000 tests a day)
– Understood the limits of the NHS and how it can be morphed to deal with COVID only
– Nightingale infrastructure
– More knowledge on the PPE supply chain and its weaknesses
– Fledgling Contact Tracing Capacity
– Oxford’s Magic Bullet
I think the government have really hashed it the first time around. They have a chance to redeem themselves with preventing a second lockdown, and preventing large numbers of deaths in the event of the second wave.
If Boris really does fuck up the second time around, then this Lib Dem voter will vote for Starmer without even thinking twice just to get at least a different perspective in.